Are U.S. and Russia Going To War?

Let me presuppose that I believe Russia and the U.S. will not go to war over Ukraine. I am saying this because even though Ukraine is a country friendly to the US it is also a semi-successful state that is rife with corruption and civil unrest. The latter has a lot to do with the country’s history and its historic ties to Russia. Parts of Ukraine had been part of Russia way before the Soviet Union, going back to the 17th Century. It's important to understand this when looking at the situation today. Ukraine was only formed in 1991, before that it was basically a split province between the western European powers (like the Austrian-Hungarian empire) and the Russian empire to the east. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country was basically forced into independence. Many now called Ukrainians proudly consider themselves Russians and did not welcome the “split”, similarly, other “Ukrainians” were comfortable in their regions and identified more with the western Europeans. Modern-day Russians and Ukrainians share an ethnic ancestry that can be traced back to the Kievan Rus, which inhabited the region verifiably back to the 8th century CE/AD.

With this quick history lesson behind us, we look at Ukraine today. The division is still very much present. Ukrainian Pro-Russian political parties have for years been a strong and popular political influence in the country. The current Ukrainian government seemingly is not of the idea that a “Russian-Ukraine" would be better for the country so they seek help from the “West” to keep independent from Russia.

This dynamic is a global powder keg especially if the interests of one party align with the “West”. Let me explain, the “West” are western European countries plus the U.S.A. For the West, there is seemingly nothing more important than keeping Russia from gaining any geopolitical advantage, such as a closer strategical position to potentially strike NATO members, which Ukraine is not one of by the way. So the interests of the "West" are purely strategically and geopolitically anti-Russian. Of course, the Ukrainian government doesn’t want their independence limited to being a client state for Russia, even though large parts of the population would welcome that.

With all that in the bag, why do I believe the U.S. will not go to war with Russia over Ukraine? The game is basically over before any fighting could begin and that has to do with the weak and stuttering excuse of a President called Joe Biden. Joe Biden and thereby the U.S. has not been consistent in his messaging and actions. Not only has the current administration removed sanctions from Russian companies to help make Russia the number one supplier of natural gas to Western Europe, they have also not been forceful in deterring Russia from even thinking about an “invasion” or annexation of Ukraine. The message from the U.S. should have been clear and strong: Don’t even try it or we will sanction the hell out of you including any possibility for Russia becoming a net gas supplier in Europe.

But that was never the case, in fact, the U.S., under Biden has halted drilling for Oil and Natural gas on federal lands and has thereby encouraged countries all over the world to seek alternative suppliers for their energy needs. Under Trump the US was the top global producer of Oil and Natural Gas, this leverage is what was needed to put Russia in its place, but now this geopolitical strategical economic advantage is destroyed due to the non-sensical policies of a blabbering old fool. Russia now has leverage and also has the assurance that the Biden administration is seemingly on board with his revival of energy dominance in Europe.

This all makes it not necessary for Russia to go to war with NATO. It would actually hurt Russia’s prospects. So, what is Russia going to do now that it knows Joe Biden will not cripple the Kremlin's economy with sanctions? He will absolutely do what has been on his mind for a long time, for those that are young enough to remember, he will pull a Crimea. NATO allies like Germany (who made themselves dependent on Russian Natural gas) have already said they will not provide military aid to Kiev, so the country is basically undefended against a large-scale military attack, which still will not happen because Russia will simply infuse political elements into Ukraine’s governments to take over the country quietly and diplomatically. Maybe even by offering some concessions like running a pipeline through the country from Crimea, at the shores of the Black Sea to Western Europe. This will make Ukraine a vassal state for Russia, much to the delight of many Ukrainian citizens.

Thanks for reading,

The Punkrock Capitalist